"Experts are warning of a new normal in which food supplies — and prices — could be rocked more regularly," writes the New York Times in a story on food inflation, trade, and export restrictions. The European Commission lowered the forecast for Europe’s crop yields, due to “distinctly drier-than-usual conditions” in large parts of the continent.
Curtailed food production in one region for one year usually does not matter much in a flexible and dynamic market, said Joseph Glauber, a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute. The issue arises when crops are knocked out for a few years running in multiple markets — for example, from droughts.
“Those could create a lot more volatility going forward — it’s one of the uncertainties about climate change,” Mr. Glauber said. Persistent droughts “could lead to regional shortfalls and, with poor countries unable to afford higher prices, food security issues.”
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